Boomer Woman Blog: February 2009

28 February 2009

San Francisco: EVs Showcased

Front and center parking at San Francisco City Hall is reserved for the plug-in hybrids that form the Green Vehicle Showcase. Charging stations (swipe a card, plug in, charge up) replace parking meters and "zipcars live here," too.

San Francisco is promoting both green auto technology and car sharing, both of which can impact a city dramatically. The Green Vehicle Showcase hosts the city's own electric fleet of cars as well as the companies in the city that rent hybrids to members (per hour and per day rentals). The Showcase is the mayor's idea and it rolled out just a little more than a week ago.

EV (electric vehicle) charging stations are slowly emerging around major cities. Yesterday, I spotted a commercial garage sign (in San Francisco) advertising "charging station inside." That is necessarily more than an electrical outlet. The charging stations include a display for tracking the charge and connect to a network that tracks all the registered cars. But I'm guessing at home an outlet will do.

The City Hall showcase is set for 2 years.

© 2009 Mary Bold, PhD, CFLE. The content of this blog or related web sites created by Mary Bold (www.marybold.com, www.boldproductions.com, College Intern Blog) is not under any circumstances to be regarded as professional, legal, financial, or medical advice. Or education advice. Or marital advice. Or even a tip.

27 February 2009

The iPod Vending Machine

I've never actually worried about Apple making money from its vending machines but I have wondered if it ever did. The usual scene: airport travelers turn and look at the machines, perhaps slowing just enough to admire the contents. (Apple is very good at presentation, of course.)

This week, at DFW Airport, I watched as long as I could before my boarding number was called. Someone was actually buying. Here's the frustration: I had to leave before seeing how the product would emerge from the machine.

26 February 2009

Recession Busters! Marketing!

The "recession" is making its way onto sale signs.

This one is called Recession Busters!

The sign is for discounted t-shirts.

The location in Terminal C, DFW Airport.

During my observation over an hour's time, no customers entered the shop. Overall, the airport crowd was light. And on my flight, I had 3 seats to myself.

25 February 2009

Airblade: Drying Hands

DFW Airport has a new machine in the ladies' room. It's an Airblade. And as soon as I saw it, I related to it. This is the fix to air-dryers blowing germs all over public restrooms.

The Airblade shoots a strong 12-second gust of air on your hands after you lower them in the contraction shown above. I read the short instructions on the machine (you don't touch anything; you just lower your hands and then raise them slowly) and braced myself for the experiment. The intense shot of air has no pain associated with it—but watch your skin "blow around." Not something we often see.

I also checked out the machine on the Dyson web site. No clue as to cost but the marketing materials present Airblade as the most hygienic and cost effective means for removing water from hands.

24 February 2009

No Internet Access for Laptop

Horrors! Internet down at the Hilton. I must remind myself that free means I paid nothing. And then I remind myself that this is the hotel that permits pets to enter free of charge. The neighboring hotels charge $100 and $150 fees (not deposits).

And I settle into slow keyboarding. Yes, blogging from the iPhone.

23 February 2009

Dog-Friendly Lists on the Internet

Determining where dogs are welcome is a daunting task. I have recently made web searches for hotels, restaurants, and parks where Sherman can visit.

First, the web is not chock full of information on dog-friendly locations but that's the best search term, anyway. "Dog-friendly hotels...." (or parks, or restaurants) in a search typically produces an outdated list that requires checking out every link, anyway. At least, it provides a place to start.

Listings for dog parks are pretty accurate even though the number of parks is not high. I still follow through with the city parks web site to locate park regulations.

Listings for hotels are not very accurate. And neither are the hotel web sites themselves. You cannot assume a "pet policy" is up to date (or even if it were ever accurate). Confirming a pet's welcome requires a phone call to the hotel. Important: ask if there's a fee to have a dog in the room. And also ask if there's a deposit.

Listings for restaurants that welcome dogs are least helpful. (Right, these are restaurants with patio seating.) Locating a restaurant to take your dog (on a leash) is likely to involve a drive-by for visual confirmation that dogs are around.

The photo: Sherman at his first hotel. A Hilton that required no extra fee and no deposit. If you were wondering... yes, that's a regular size office chair. Yes, that's a five-month-old puppy.

22 February 2009

The Cost of Fondue. The True Cost.

Perhaps you recognize this platter of sweets. It is the dipping set for chocolate fondue at The Melting Pot. I enjoyed it with friends earlier this month as they helped me prepare (with words as well as pictures) for a conference presentation called Have You Tried Chocolate Fondue?

The talk isn't about fondue at all, or at least not much. It's about assessment and engaging faculty in the work surrounding it. Last year I attended the happiest assessment meeting I had ever seen. And I attribute the happiness to the fact that the hosts served lunch with chocolate fondue.

A friend asked me why I didn't just make fondue rather than go to a restaurant to photograph it. First, it never occurred to me. Second, I am certain that the ingredients and time would far exceed the cost of the restaurant.

But that raises the point of what The Melting Pot costs. Fondue (ideally, cheese for bread cubes followed by broth for vegetables followed by chocolate for strawberries) costs what you would expect. Plan on at least $20 per person even if you share some items. Here's the real cost of this restaurant: time.

Depending on what you consider a leisurely meal, The Melting Pot will either delight you with the generous allotment of seat time in a comfortable booth... or try your patience as the clock rolls right through the second hour. A meal of fondue can last longer than a movie.

21 February 2009

Mowing the Yard: Green Paws

In Texas, we're already having to mow the yard. As reluctant gardeners, we do not bag grass clippings. Over the years, that's become the recommended strategy for healthy lawns. (So, we used to be bad lawn-tenders but now we're good lawn-tenders.)

The happy news about mowing this year is that Sherman is willing to follow behind the mower, not chase it or attack it (his vacuum cleaner behaviors). The distressing side effect is green paws. Or maybe not. Sherman doesn't mind. The stain wears off in a day's time. And I cannot see where it transfers.

20 February 2009

Personal Technology: An Evernote Cloud

A cloud in computing is a good thing (we're pretty sure) as whole software applications run on the Internet and we are less bound to a single machine where we used to install programs. Of course, we still do install a lot of programs on our physical machines. But there's a trend....

Cloud computing can be big when a whole company or whole campus relies of software off-site. Or it can be very small, like the note-writing application called evernote. With a small file on my desktop (free via the web site evernote.com) and on my iPhone (free via the App Store), I can write notes and read notes from either machine and the text (or photos or hand-writing) reside in the small evernote cloud in cyberspace.

If you've used Google Docs or Google Spreadsheets, you've used the Google Apps cloud. If you're like me on a new HP laptop this year, you may have done this: signed up for the "mesh," another cloud, and never checked in. (I promise myself I will. Soon.)

What's good about cloud computing? You can access it from anywhere (Google's cloud runs strictly on a browser, any browser, so you don't have to have your own computer or phone to log in.) It provides backed-up data because the company running the show has a lot more back-up capacity and discipline than you do. And in many applications, you can share a document or send a link to another person who can log in from anywhere to see what you're talking about.

What's bad about cloud computing? That whole security thing. And the privacy thing. And the risk of servers going down (as if 99.9999% time is not good enough for us). And the risk of losing data (so you must keep your own archive if losing the data would ruin your life or your business). And the inconvenience of Internet outages at your house (which means you have to plan on going to Starbucks at least a couple of times a year). And speed. Yes, in complex applications at least, you may see a lag. So, as much as I like the Google Spreadsheet concept, I prefer Excel on the hard drive. That will get better.

Back to evernote: it's small but I like it. For now, I'm accessing my free account from laptop and iPhone. I am already curious about the next test: can I embed the app on Tom Bold's iPhone so that he can log in and find notes from me? I'll have to make the process for him as easy as using SMS text messages because he has mastered that.

19 February 2009

First grocery store visit in about 2 months

Today's entry is about grocery store P.R., grocery store team spirit, and, I'm pretty sure, the economic downturn that some call the Mini Depression.

I went to the grocery store yesterday. First time in about 2 months because I have determined that the best budget control is simply to not go to stores. I am able to do this and still survive because Tom Bold has never made an impulse purchase in all the years that I've known him. Wait a minute...that's not so. He did make one in the Dallas Galleria Macy's in 1993. (Yes, it was that memorable.) So, he's doing the weekly shopping and saving us a lot of money.

So, yesterday did feel a little odd to me. And although the shelves were stocked in typical manner, I picked up on new behaviors. In 20 minutes' time, I was addressed by 6 employees asking me, "How are you doing?" or a variation of that. I am prepared to swear that I've never been individually welcomed by so many store employees before in my life. I would estimate that at least 2 of these welcomers were management. Note: some of these welcomes were called out to me from a distance.

Also during those 20 minutes I heard the loud speaker several times (couldn't make out the announcement) followed by cheers. I am prepared to swear that I've never ever heard cheering in the grocery store before.

When I reached the check out counter crowded with High School Musical 3 on sale, I had to smile. That particular DVD was a good match for the mood of the place. You know, the cheering.

I asked the checker what the announcements were about and she explained that whenever a customer adds a $1 donation to Kindness for Kids to the tab, it is announced and cheered. "Do you want to donate today?" Sure. It feels a little bit like being in HSM3.

Kindness for Kids: Help us care for kids with cancer is a donation program co-sponsored by Tom Thumb, Children's Medical Center, and CookChildren's in Texas.

18 February 2009

Boomer Budget Trade-offs

Perhaps not my biggest financial decision for 2009, but an interesting exercise in budget trade-offs. I refer, of course, to paying a little more for disposable cutlery that you can dispose of with a clear conscience.

The web site is wheatware.com where you can order wheatware and golf tees and guitar picks. Diverse product line. (Actually, that's the complete product list but it is diverse.)

The spoon at left is the cornware model, demonstrating a little more diversity.

There are trade-offs. Cost comparison with the more conventional plastic spoon at my discount store: wheat/corn option is about 2¢ more per unit. And then there's the temperature problem. Some of the products are not suitable for use with hot foods.

17 February 2009

Boomer Woman on a Budget

Boomers know how to cut back. It just means we don't go to the store. We have enough stuff in our homes, garages, and storage units (at least, some people have storage units) to live on for years. One might think that we could sell our stuff, too, except that I've had zero luck with craigslist and, besides, everyone else is cutting back, too.

We have a lot of national indicators of people cutting back, and the blog Demo Memo (by demographer Cheryl Russell) explains one more: the Tchotchke Index.

Tchotchkes are decorative items and knick-knacks that we buy when we have money. The Index goes down when, nationally, we either don't have money or are worried about not having money. Demo Memo explains the current statistics (the Index is down, of course) but we don't really need to follow it closely. After all, we are creating it. (Image is not my personal tchotchke. It's a free-use image from the web.)

16 February 2009

Personal Finance: Moving it to the Cell Phone

Mashable's link to free finance apps (for the iPhone) leads us to two major considerations for the near future:

1 - Conducting our finances online will be routine. I do not mind confessing that it took me years to move my mortgage payment online. I did not know if I would be able to make extra principle payments. There were no screenshots to allow me to preview the system. I obviously didn't feel comfortable asking. (Logic need not apply.) I finally took the big step after deciding that I would just mail in the additional check, if necessary. (Again, logic need not apply.) Of course, I found a multiple-option screen that allowed me to make any kind of payment I wanted to. (Even extra interest payments. Yep, logic need not apply.)

2 - Computing in general is shifting to the ultra portable. I remember when laptops started proliferating. They were heavy little things (mainly the battery, I think). Then they got lighter and bigger. And now they're getting smaller and more powerful. And now there's a computer in my cell phone.

While the boomer in me cries out that I would never conduct financial business on a cell phone, I remember the shifts I have already made (1 and 2 above). So, I'm going to work up to actually banking on the phone. A nifty calculator or two to start. Perhaps my trust will build before the dome is paid off. Or I could use the cell phone for the last payment. Yes, I like the lack of logic in that idea.

15 February 2009

A dog's decorating sense

As the red arrow indicates, the humans in this household also bring sticks inside. Sherman is a good fit here.

Tom Bold removes Sherman's found objects regularly and on some days Sherman appears to try to find the exact sticks again in the yard. (He brings them in through his dog door.)

We are making no attempt to break the dog of this pasttime. We think it is saving house and furniture from something far worse.

14 February 2009

The final stimulus plan: COBRA subsidy

Last night's best "fast read" of the stimulus plan is from MSNBC.

I've been tracking the progress of health care insurance provisions, specifically for the two laid-off folks in my immediate family. One will benefit from the stimulus plan; the other won't.

The family member in Texas was laid-off in Spring 2008, which is well ahead of the new support (covering lay-offs in Sept 2008 and later). He might have benefited from another clause but it was removed in the final version of the stimulus package. (That would have allowed COBRA continuation to Medicare age, a plus for people whose insurance under COBRA is less expensive than an individual plan. Typically, that's people who are 60+ years of age.)

The family member on the east coast was laid-off in 2009, and will (presumably) have the support of 65%-subsidized COBRA for 9 months. For the final 9 months of coverage, there will not be a government subsidy. Such a subsidy will especially ease the way for families who routinely see COBRA cost of $1000/month.

(For me? Well, I'm using COBRA at present but that follows a retirement, not a lay-off, in 2008.)

The variety of needs, whether for COBRA or other health insurance, cannot be overstated. The stimulus package will help a lot of people through the COBRA subsidy and also through Medicaid support. But there will also be folks with slightly different needs, in slightly different situations, who will not be served. And, of course, health insurance is just one part of survival after a lay-off.

13 February 2009

Personal Technology: Transit on Your iPhone

I'm apps light. That means my iPhone has very few apps (small applications or programs) on it. I am reluctant to load the phone up with applications that I won't be able to recognize or remember a week after download. Hopstop, based on the popular Hopstop web site, is the exception.

For one thing, the icon for the app is the circled H that looks a lot like a transit sign in a big city. I have a good chance of recognizing that. As to remembering the purpose? Oh, that's not hard at all. Transit maps and platforms have always confounded me. And the printed schedules? Murderous. But I have previously found help at the Hopstop web site and the iPhone app mimics that resource. So, I've downloaded the app and I'll put it to the test in San Francisco this month.

12 February 2009

Lay-offs and dissipating survival guilt: A special case

A friend's 22-year-old son (in a different state from mine, not Texas) last month had a little survivor guilt when he saw a friend and co-worker laid off from their shared employment at a chain restaurant. Several workers were laid off and the "survivors" all lost their overtime hours. Belt-tightening was also felt in reduced tips from customers. The manager tried to ameliorate matters with increased food allowances from the kitchen.

This month, my friend's son's survivor guilt has evaporated. He's working for less (overall compensation) and his ex-co-worker is not-working for more. Translation: the laid off restaurant worker is bringing in more cash from unemployment benefits than the workers still in their jobs.

My friend tried to help her son with an interpretation: his laid-off friend must be concerned about locating work, arranging for health care, and the temporariness of the support checks.

This presupposes that young adults seek stable work. That's just not necessarily the case. Perhaps my boomer friend is projecting her own concerns. If she reads this, I'll no doubt pay for that opinion.

11 February 2009

Tech Sector Lay-offs

Lay-offs in the technology sector are tracked graphically at TechCrunch Layoff Tracker.

TechCrunch (the sponsoring web site) describes itself as "obsessively profiling" new Internet products. (So, profiling the tech sector is not its usual fare.) I enjoyed reading through the Archives, especially the 2005 entries exploring a new proposition called Web 2.0 with considerable attention to the new vocabulary developing around it.

10 February 2009

On hold: recovery.gov

We're on hold. Click http://recovery.gov and set a bookmark in your browser. Eventually a bill will pass and you'll want to look in on this promised transparent view of how the stimulus package is put to work.

In the meantime, refer to Robert Reich's blog (February 9 entry) for his explanation as to why we're on hold.

09 February 2009

Yellow dogs rarely even think about Republicans

Folks in the South know what a yellow dog Democrat is. So, probably, do most adults all over the country. But in the South, we know about this special political breed when we are children. Before we know what a Democrat is, even.

It's no surprise that I am one. Yellow dogs don't talk about it much because, you know, there's not really anything to talk about. You don't have to read up on the opposition because you already know you're never going to vote for them. You don't have to debate politics with Republican friends or family because you know that you'd never convert anyone to your views just as you'd never be convinced of their views. Yellow dog status is a lot like knowing you're a Chevy man or a Ford man and you're never going to change. Um, not so great an analogy this year, I guess.

Anyway, that brings me to February 2009, amid the Mini Depression, and feeling genuine sympathy for a Republican. I never thought I would find myself empathizing with Arnold Schwarzenegger. But that's where I am.

08 February 2009

Audible Audience: He's Just Not That Into You

This is my report on the audience for He's Just Not That Into You (the movie).

Most of the people reading this blog are going to see this movie so I don't want to ruin anyone's theatre experience. There will be no plot discussion here.

The boomer-aged man in front of me chuckled audibly at the bromides spoken by the female characters. And he laughed out loud at the blunt truisms (presumed) spoken by the male characters.

The many boomer-aged women in the audience laughed out loud at both. And they gasped (literally and loudly) at the utterance of a male character in Home Depot.

That's all I have to say. Listen to your audience when you see the film.

07 February 2009

Air Plant No More

Before the holidays I wrote of a great mail order purchase: air plants. I ordered one for myself and carefully researched the care it would need: soak in a pot of water for a few hours, once a month. That was it. No soil. No water. Made for me.

The air plant survived almost two months on top of a bookcase. And then Sherman got involved.

06 February 2009

Personal Technology: The Odometer Record

I started this in January to solve my problem of documenting odometer readings for tax purposes. I photograph the numbers at start of trip and again at end of trip. (iPhone may not sport the best camera among cell phones but it satisfies my needs just fine.) Then, I email the photographs to myself. On the subject line, I enter just enough detail to be able to identify where I was traveling and why. The emails are date stamped automatically. I use the filter feature of gmail to archive them under the label “E-mileage[taxes].”

By streamlining the email steps, my new system surely beats keeping a paper diary, my old way of recording odometer readings. If my email crashes? I'm no worse off than if I were to lose a hard copy version. And, frankly, I lose email less frequently than I lose paper documents.

04 February 2009

FSA: Flexible Spending Arrangement

When I mentioned flexible spending accounts yesterday (contrasting with health savings accounts), I was a bit dismissive. Yes, the drawback of the spending account is that you forfeit whatever money is sitting in the account at the end of the year. But few people actually lose money, and most people do quite well by setting aside money for medical expenses. With the set-aside comes a tax advantage: they are pretax dollars.

Success is most likely when you make good estimates of what you'll need in the coming year and when you reconcile the lists of allowed expenses. Seems there are 2 lists: one by the IRS and one by the employer sponsoring the plan. The lists don't always match.

But when the research is complete, the happy flex-spender can end the year by purchasing approved over-the-counter supplies and medicines to clean out the account. Otherwise, the flex account holder finds himself joining in the lines at the eye doctor at year's end. (February is the month of hurried activity to spend what's in the account.)

IRS web pages: Flexible Spending Arrangements (FSAs)

HDHP: High Deductible Health Plan

High Deductible Health Plan (HDHP) is the modern version of what my family of origin used to call major medical. Forty years ago, major medical was code for "your unemployed brother is gambling on his health so we're paying the premium for major medical." It wasn't particularly good insurance unless you landed in the hospital with a serious disease, something not likely to happen to young men, anyway.

In today's vernacular, that type of insurance is more likely to be called a catastrophic policy—no routine medical expenses, but hospitalization covered after a deductible. (And today, major medical is more likely to be spelled out as comprehensive major medical with more coverage than the cheap plans of old.)

The HDHP of today reminds me of the old major medical but the HDHP insurance coverage is actually very broad. It just doesn't kick in until after you've spent a hefty deductible out of pocket. That's the trade-off: low premiums provide coverage but you won't get the coverage until you've spent thousands of dollars per year.

One advantage of HDHP is the ability to set up an HSA or Health Savings Account. The IRS calls that a "tax-favored" account, meaning that you (and even an employer if you have one) can save money in a special account tax-free if it's reserved for qualified health expenses.

Before you raise your eyebrows (as I did), understand that the HSA is different from the "flexible spending account" that you may have had through an employer. Those spending accounts were the tax-advantaged accounts that made you sometimes forfeit whatever was in the account at the end of the year. Money in the HSA (savings) rolls over, year to year, tax free. You never lose the money and if you spend it according to the rules, it and any interest earned remains tax free.

It's at this stage that I need to simply provide the links for your own reading. Why should you read these things? Because even though HDHPs are not wholly admired (some experts fear that HDHP-holders will not have appropriate access to health care when they need it, if only through their own reluctance to pay out of pocket), these plans are a strategy that some employers will turn to when the insurance squeeze turns into an insurance freeze.

HDHP - information from NY Times

Health Savings Accounts and OtherTax-Favored Health Plans - HSA information from the IRS

Glossary of health care terms - courtesy of Aetna

03 February 2009

Who Would You Travel For?

So much better a question than what book would you take to the deserted island... Who would you be willing to travel to see? Forget family and friends. I'm talking celebrities here.

Years ago, for the first out-of-retirement concert, I marveled at neighbors' decision to fly from Dallas to Los Angeles for Barbra Streisand. My neighbors had promised themselves to make the effort for Streisand if she ever performed live again. Happily, by the time the opportunity arose, they had the resources to make the weekend trip to L.A.

Another household in the same neighborhood went to see the Letterman show several times. They would send in the requisite postcard and then, when selected with a couple of weeks' notice, purchase plane tickets to New York. This was in the day of $167 round-trip flights, a level of economy that may not be so unusual this year, again.

These stories probably say something about my old neighborhood. Yes, boomers.

So, who would I travel for? I always thought Bette Midler but when I checked out the prices for her upcoming Vegas show ($250/person), I determined I didn't care so much, after all.

So, who did I travel for recently? Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi. In some circles, he is every bit the super star as Bette. (And because I think MC would chuckle, I've provided the link to his entry at Wikipedia.)

You want to know at what cost I traveled for MC, right? The one-day conference fee was $49 (Claremont Graduate University). Hotel was the Doubletree Clarement, for $110 per night or a rounded up total of about $250. Meals were purchased at the neighboring Trader Joe's grocer for about $40 total. Taxi from Ronald Reagan Airport was $120. Taxi to Ontario Airport was $40. Airplane ticket was $5 (because I used miles) and baggage charge was $30 (not anticipated because through flukes I had avoided such charges up until this winter).

We all have our favorite celebrities. (And mine was worth the 48-hour trip.)

02 February 2009

Finding Humor in the Mini Depression

Rick Moranis' Dialing for Derivatives op-ed column in The NY Times (yesterday) is a great way to start the week. I promise.

LOLFed - Troubled Asset Ridicule Program is harder to read but highly reflective of a mood for laughing out loud (LOL), for which it is named. I don't read beyond the text on the photographs, frankly.

The Onion. An acquired taste, this onion-y view of life can skewer any topic, which can bring much laughter. But if you've been touched by suicide, for example, you may not care for The Onion's mock reporting on the suicide note that came in the form of a 48-slide PowerPoint presentation. (I guess my favorite part of the story is, Copywriter Gita Pruriyaran said the presentation "had room for improvement.") My son introduced me to The Onion when he was a teenager and I saw it as insight into his adolescent development. I have since come to admire the satire.

Learning to love The Onion reminds me of my adaptation to David Letterman. As a young woman, I cringed at what I considered his meanness and mocking. And then I grew more cynical and Letterman grew more circumspect. Or I just got used to him.

01 February 2009

COBRA from another angle

I tend to take COBRA news personally. What emerges from the final stimulus package may well affect me personally but I appreciate what all this news means to employers, too.

For the great majority of employers, COBRA health insurance has been the very short bridge (technically up to 18 months but typically just a few months) offered to a limited number of ex-employees (some reports say less than 10% of ex-workers and other reports say less than 20%) at some percentage of the actual premium (often up to 102%).

That doesn't sound so bad except that employers regularly see the claims from these ex-workers go up, so that the "loss ratio" is around 150%. Put bluntly, the premiums collected from the ex-employees won't necessarily cover the medical costs billed.

The reasoning behind those figures is that the kind of people who purchase COBRA insurance (remember, just a fraction of the ex-employees who are eligible for it) are the kind of people who either (a) do not dare live without coverage because they have health issues, or (b) cannot find affordable insurance on their own because they have health issues. Especially aging ex-employees with pre-existing conditions are likely to purchase COBRA even if the premiums are high.

As employers observe (some with rancor), ex-employees on COBRA may use the bridge time to tend to a myriad of medical needs. Perhaps the ex-employees are uncertain about future medical coverage and therefore want to take advantage of the COBRA insurance while they have it. Or perhaps they simply have a lot of time to devote to doctor's visits.

COBRA was tolerated because not too many people used it. And those who did use it rarely needed the full allotment of 18 months. And for larger employers making intermittent lay-offs, COBRA was an attractive element of a severance package. For example, an employer might offer the laid-off employee "free" COBRA coverage for 6 or 9 or 12 months, after which the ex-employee would pick up the full premium (up to 102%).

Right now, that same employer is worried about the impact of COBRA in a Mini Depression. Record lay-offs immediately translate into more COBRA elections than ever experienced before. (Paperwork and processing costs go up, too, because everyone has to be notified repeatedly of the COBRA option.)

A likely product from Congress will be a federal subsidy to assist newly laid-off workers in purchasing COBRA insurance. That will probably be limited to lay-offs that started in late 2008 and 2009, and to a limited number of months. That subsidy will encourage many more ex-employees to elect to purchase COBRA on the basis of new affordability—and also because they will not feel confident about finding new employment any time soon.

Employers fear the impact of another possible element of the stimulus package: the requirement to offer COBRA coverage to ex-employees who are 55 or older, and younger ex-employees who were employed for 10 or more years with the company. The provision would allow these ex-employees to utilize the COBRA election (without any federal subsidy) until they reach Medicare age.

Employers are looking at their budgets closely to plan for what will surely be a costly event, regardless of what is eventually passed by Congress. One moderating factor is the likelihood that with larger numbers of COBRA participants, the loss ratio will drop. But analysts cannot say how much that drop may be.