Boomer Woman Blog: January 2009

31 January 2009

Clustered Events

I like the phrase shared culture to address what a lot of people call coincidence. People do a lot of things at the same time because they live in a society with lots of information arriving in their mailboxes (and inboxes) at the same time. The fact that people are group-oriented reinforces the tendency to arrive at the same conclusions at the same time. (Ever know a writer who insists that someone stole his idea for a hit novel or screenplay? Magazine editors would never make that mistake: they routinely open article proposals from a dozen writers using nearly identical text and ideas—in the same week.)

So, it's really not so unusual that a few years ago, The Sociologist's daughter headed for Thailand just a few weeks before my son went. (No contact about this among the young adults. No idle conversation among the parents. All tickets were purchased before we exchanged information.)

Shortly after the new year began, I noticed a sharp upturn in emailed invitations to connect with friends, colleagues, and relatives on Facebook. Goodness knows, I didn't act on those invitations, a fact that was no doubt predicted by my friends, colleagues, and relatives.

Also this month, I have received a cluster of LinkedIn notices. For those, I give the slightest nod: yes, permit the link. These social networking requests of late may represent (a) the expansion of network memberships, (b) renewed desire to connect with people during uncertain economic times, (c) free time on the hands of my colleagues who have lost their jobs but kept their Internet connections.

Along those economic lines, I also heard from two people this week about their landlines (telephones tethered to their homes). My sister was the first to mention it. She sent an email explaining that the landline number would no longer work. She canceled the service when she determined the annual savings of $900. As she exclaimed, "What have I been thinking?"

The second person took a first step and now prepares for a second step. She first called the phone company to cancel the long-distance option; that dropped the monthly bill by $30. But then she stared at the new bill and realized that of the $70 remaining, her Internet connection is only $19.95. So, she asked me, do I have to have a landline to have the Internet? No, but.... maybe with that company she does, or maybe the cost is low because of the paired service.

She is mulling. The only time she picks up the landline is when she hasn't been able to screen sales calls. So what if she has to change ISPs (Internet service providers) for a new service without a phone line? Well, she does have a convenience cost. We talked long enough to determine that her only email address is through the current ISP. So, that means a change in email, ideally to a web-based service like gmail or hotmail or yahoo so she never faces this particular dilemma again.

Two women I know, in one week, are reducing household costs by killing the landline. (They are from different generations, by the way.) Shared culture. Shared economic times.

© 2009 Mary Bold, PhD, CFLE. The content of this blog or related web sites created by Mary Bold (www.marybold.com, www.boldproductions.com, College Intern Blog) is not under any circumstances to be regarded as professional, legal, financial, or medical advice. Or education advice. Or marital advice. Or even a tip.

30 January 2009

Downsizing and the Dirty Dozen

Last weekend I flew out to California for a one-day conference just to sit in the audience (as opposed to serving as a presenter, which will be my reason for flying to California for a one-day conference next month).

I'll comment another day about what possessed me go to L.A. for 48 hours. Today, I want to relate one aspect of the conference day: the presence of 3 b-school speakers. Who would have known that university business schools are into positive psychology?

Kit Cameron of the U of Michigan was one of those speakers and he related some of his older research, suddenly pertinent to the current Mini Depression. Cameron and colleagues used to study downsizing companies, especially those caught by unexpected shrinking markets. The current round of lay-offs in the U.S. qualifies for Cameron's description.

Shorthand version: most downsizing companies don't go about the process in ways constructive or respectful. Negative attributes emerge, what Cameron called the "dirty dozen."

1 - Centralization
2 - Crisis mentality
3 - Loss of innovativeness
4 - Resistance to change
5 - Decreasing morale
6 - Politicized special interest groups
7 - Non-prioritized cutbacks
8 - Loss of trust
9 - Increasing conflict
10 - Restricted communication
11 - Lack of teamwork
12 - Lack of leadership

Companies that take the time to counteract these tendencies can instead involve as many stakeholders as possible in strategizing how to downsize. Those companies can produce a better outcome, if not for all the work force, at least for some.

The stats from the Cameron studies are not encouraging: 80% of downsizing companies deteriorate. The much smaller group of 20% come out of the process stronger and eventually profitable again.

Cameron still cites the dirty dozen but takes a different approach to the study of business today, relying on POS, or Positive Organizational Scholarship. And that's the name of the research Center for POS at the Ross School of Business, U of Michigan.

29 January 2009

Names Matter, even for economic downturns

What we call a circumstance frames our response to it. Yes?

Robert Reich uses the term Mini Depression in his blog.

A website opines on styles of economists with this long blog name: Great Recession because it's not a depression. yet.

The lower-case approach is deep recession or economic downturn. Those are terms I have used pretty consistently but am ready to abandon. They do not reflect the toll on the people who are losing their jobs and their sense of security for health and wealth.

I don't care for the Great Recession because it sounds too clever. I want an authentic name, fully aware that the best descriptor may emerge a few years from now.

Bloomberg.com reports that the White House doesn't want to risk what may emerge as The Descriptor. The media types have run focus groups to find out what vocabulary will attract support from the populace. What's being touted for now? Recovery instead of recession. Investment instead of infrastructure.

28 January 2009

Potential COBRA Supports

Potential supports for health care, currently being debated in Congress:

Extended COBRA (up to Medicare age) for workers age 55+ and workers with 10+ years with an employer.

Subsidized COBRA (up to 65% of the cost) for people laid off between September 1, 2008, and December 31, 2009 (but probably just for 9 or 12 months).

Extended COBRA with cost limited to 35% (rather than 100%) of the premium.

Entry to Medicaid programs for unemployed, low-income adults.

Incentives to health providers to convert records to electronic systems, which have been shown to increase efficiency and reduce costs.

All these proposals are in play, in the House or the Senate. Emphasis is on people who were/will be laid off in a specific time frame. The need for help resides in a basic COBRA statistic—only 9% or 10% of qualified workers purchase COBRA following separation from a job. The reason is clear: the premiums are too high to cover when the household income has just been slashed.

27 January 2009

Guess the Airport, Part 4 (last one)

While I've been traveling, I've offered to you some favorite airport photos and this is the last one. They are images from past trips, not from the current one. If you are into puzzles, you can guess the origin of the photo and then check for the answer below. It's in small type and spelled backward.

Tiles and mosaics on the floor are a challenge for airports. There's the cleaning issue. And the risk of damage that won't be easily repaired. And finally the traffic problem: people looking down instead of ahead.

Some floor art describes what's outside the terminal (I'll share some of those in future) and some art, like the image above, helps to locate you on the earth. But don't assume there's a clue in this particular shot.

Location of airport: silopaennim

26 January 2009

Guess the Airport, Part 3

While I'm traveling for the next several days, I will offer to you some favorite airport photos. They are images from past trips, not from the current one. If you are into puzzles, you can guess the origin of the photo and then check for the answer below. It's in small type and spelled backward.

This airport's art is not all on the wall, but it's fair to say that marine life as wall sculpture is a theme. Once you tune in to the installations (most high above your head), you'll spot more and more and more.

Location of this airport: imaim

25 January 2009

Guess the Airport, Part 2

While I'm traveling for the next several days, I will offer to you some favorite airport photos. They are images from past trips, not from the current one. If you are into puzzles, you can guess the origin of the photo and then check for the answer below. It's in small type and spelled backward.

Dramatic sculptures are sometimes two stories tall, so you know you're looking at a large terminal. This work, called Wish, is cast bronze installed in 2005. The artist is Terry Allen (American).

I took several shots of this sculpture and found every angle to be stunning.

Location of the sculpture: d lanimret, tropria wfd

24 January 2009

Guess the Airport, Part 1

While I'm traveling for the next several days, I will offer to you some favorite airport photos. They are images from past trips, not from the current one. If you are into puzzles, you can guess the origin of the photo and then check for the answer below. It's in small type and spelled backward.

Do you know the concept of a moving airport lounge? It's like a big bus that moves between main terminal and gate. On the exit, you move directly from plane to lounge. Yes, that means the pilot and crew get on the big bus, too, to leave the plane.

Airport location of the lounge/bus: sellud - c.d. notgnihsaw

23 January 2009

Personal Technology: Treadmill Computing

My impression of treadmill desk users is that they are either in love with exercise or detest it. I'm in the latter group.

And I'm also pretty picky about desk design. All the photos of treadmill desks on the web present bulky structures, with hand holds covered by desk supports.

My makeshift version of a treadmill desk doesn't fulfill all desk functions but it is streamlined! All I do is prop a subnotebook on the upper ledge of the treadmill console. Sheer luck: that ledge has a bit of a lip on the front that securely holds the computer in place. There's electric in the floor nearby so I don't have to rely on battery for computing. And I increase text size on the screen in order to scroll through email and web pages. (I scroll with the down arrow key, not the touchpad.)

The exercise part? I can manage 0.5 miles per hour and keep a steady reading eye. Yep, that's barely moving. But it is moving.

Literally decades ago, the late Suzanne Pleshette told Johnny Carson that she wasn't much attracted to exercise. "Whenever I feel the urge to exercise, I find that if I lie down it goes away."

22 January 2009

Where to Learn about the Bad Bank Proposal

I cannot think any of us has time to read a blog of the president's day, every day. But the fact that one was compiled yesterday says a lot about the Internet, the country's interest in the new administration, and our desire for news.

For more concrete information, the White House web site is a starting point. The Briefing Room is starting to fill with Executive Orders and Proclamations. The first ones address transparency and ethics. (Always a good start.)

But we're still waiting for the strategies—the subjects of the closed meetings at the White House this week. To fill in the blanks with expert commentary, Robert Reich's blog provides. My recommendation, turn to Reich for the best explanation of the Bad Bank proposal. You'll want to scroll back to his January 18 blog to capture it all.

21 January 2009

Wayback at the White House & Today's Version, Too

The Internet Archive's wayback machine provides a window on the White House's web site and how it has changed over the years. Click on something from the Clinton years and boomers will be reminded of what most web sites looked like in that era. (Use the wayback machine's search box to enter any other URL and you can make your own historical review of old favorites.)

The new administration's web site (http://www.whitehouse.gov) rolled out yesterday afternoon with a new look, promising to equal the high tech ways of the Obama campaign. Not yet populated is the Briefing Room with space for Executive Orders and Proclamations. If you can't take the time to visit regularly, you can leave your email address to receive updates.

(Thanks to Jimmy Orr's blog yesterday at Christian Science Monitor for mentioning the wayback machine. I use the machine from time to time but I had never thought to use it for a political review.)

20 January 2009

Watching for COBRA or Any Other Kind of Insurance We Can Get Our Hands On

It's not just my interest in health care insurance for Tom and me—it's the awareness that when unemployment goes up 1%, "un-insured" goes up 1.1%. In the coming year or two, that translates to a lot of families who will face difficult decisions about going to the doctor.

COBRA is our current protection against loss of insurance (typically caused by loss of employment) but the costs are legendary. If your former employer paid most of your premium (and most employers do), then you may not even know that COBRA will cost $300 or $400 or $500 (or more) a month. That's for one person. Family coverage starts at about $1000.

In better times, you might not have even known or cared. Losing a job one month, but starting another job the next month, might mean your insurance "bridged" neatly with no uncovered span. Or if a span did occur (we'll pretend it took 3 months to get your next job), you might have relied on COBRA for those 3 months or purchased short-term insurance with a deductible, and not gone broke. Not because the cost was any lower than it is today but because the cost was limited by the time span. If you had some savings (the emergency fund) or you lived on credit cards for a while, you bounced back without any great awareness of the real cost of health insurance.

Short-term COBRA was well tolerated by a lot of the folks who used it. Today, it's not working.

But today a new federal administration begins and the front-burner issues of the economy and unemployment are tied to a back-burner issue of health care. Immediate relief in the form of affordable health insurance is needed. No one knows what that will look like—or how immediate it can be.

Proposals will emerge and it's even possible that in a few hours we will hear a new president's preference. One proposal is to extend COBRA beyond the current 18 month limit or somehow subsidize it so that unemployed workers and families can maintain the insurance they had when employed.

A Medicare-centered proposal would likely take more time to explore and approve. One such plan was proposed yesterday by the California Nurses Association: Medicare for All (Single-Payer) Reform. The plan is cast in terms of a stimulus for the economy, promising 2.6 million new jobs.

I cannot help but read of such plans with other news stories in my head: concierge doctors or, as my local TV station described the concept just yesterday, MDVIP programs. (Another term is boutique medicine.) Would you pay a physician an annual fee of $1500 (separate from your medical billing by her/his office) to insure access and leisurely appointments? Maybe even house calls? In exchange, the physician agrees to carry no more than about 600 patients in her practice. (That's probably a fourth or fifth of the doctor's previous practice.)

Excuse my cynicism, now: will the concierge doctor welcome a Medicare patient? I am certain I am not the first baby boomer to wonder that.

(I am not a critic of concierge medicine, by the way. Last year, when a surgeon gave me his cell phone number—and we even had to call it late at night—I had a taste of having a physician literally on call for you. It could be addictive.)

19 January 2009

A Few of Sherman's Firsts

At 3.5 months, Sherman the Labradoodle is not especially worldly. For example, he has not yet discovered the trash can at our house.

Still, this was a week of firsts for him. He traveled by car halfway across the country, enjoying (greatly) his first Rest Area pet areas.

And back in Texas today, he went to his first Sonic because dogs are allowed on the outside patio.

And then he went to his first park, where he saw little kids on bicycles. This was especially exciting because in our neighborhood he has seen only old people on bikes and they sit much higher.

The park visit ended with Sherman heading for his first hydrant. I wish my camera had caught his first approach, with front leg raised as if he meant to point. Remember, this is the dog who hasn't even noticed the trash can.

18 January 2009

Boomer Woman's Political Walk-Out

Have you noticed Willie Brown all over cable news-and-commentary shows? He looks remarkably the same as... the olden days.

More than 30 years ago, I had that up-close view. I was (briefly) a member of California's Democratic Party State Central Committee. I was appointed by a State Senator whose name is long gone from my memory. I met my sponsor only a few times; my appointment had more to do with my employment by a labor union than any close association with the Senator.

Willie Brown was a feature of nearly every political event I attended in those years. When the Committee had an especially hot meeting, it was Willie who stood with an impassioned speech and led virtually all the attendees in a walk-out.

I was in that number and delighted that I was part of Willie's protest. Today, I chuckle at not remembering what the heck we were protesting.

17 January 2009

Hints at Health Care

With no sure plan outlined, there's at least talk of the new administration addressing the length of COBRA eligibility for the newly unemployed. This could be a short- or medium-term solution for folks today while more permanent plans are proposed, debated, and probably debated some more. Even an economy in crisis may not be enough to demand swift action in health care.

COBRA is not necessarily affordable for everyone, of course. There may have to an assortment of short-term strategies to help Americans get/stayed insured. I'm planning a COBRA Watch starting next week.

16 January 2009

Home Office: The Make-Shift Stand-Up Desk

One of the drawbacks of working at home is the tendency to sit for too long at the computer. In the workplace, there's enough interruption (and going to meetings) to keep you moving. On the other hand, working at home has potential for more and varied workspaces to support movement. For the past week I have concentrated on standing more while I compute. I sit after about a half-hour but I cycle through the routine several times in a day. (I also find that my rolling table shifts during a standing session. I never end where I started.)

The Internet is full of treadmill desks now and I'm determined to give that a try, too. What could entice one to return to an office workspace? Well, it would have to be as good as Fog Creek Software's office in San Francisco, new in 2009. They installed desks that can be raised for stand-up work. And a lot of other nifty furniture. Check out their slideshow and be sure to read the comments below each photograph.

15 January 2009

Rewards of Cutting Back: Sometimes You Don't Have To

With clear understanding that we could all compute more economically from campus labs and library bays, we nevertheless prefer broadband in our own homes. The cost can be outrageous but speed is addictive and I have lately found myself impatiently tapping my finger when data moved slowly. So, with great dread I phoned our ISP (Internet service provider) to find out what faster access might cost. The dread was this: I expected to not only hear a too-high price but also a reason to cut some TV channels to lower our monthly bill. Yep. I was ready to cut something. (Well, not the Internet, of course.)

I was pleasantly surprised: not only did I lower our bill by $18/month, but I kept all the TV channels, doubled the number of HD channels, and increased the Internet speed from 5 Mbps to 20 Mbps. This involved the Triple Bundle and the Double Play. Or something.

These gains did not come easily. I couldn't register online to manage the account myself, so I was forced to call by phone. My computer-assisted call took extra time as I kept having to select "Other" as my option. I was on hold for 40 minutes waiting for the human assist. And it still took 20 minutes past that to review the account. Our account number was no longer valid (no explanation why) but now I have the new account number plus the "pay number," which I will never need to use but should write down anyway. Our data could not be accessed without a certain phone number (that I had 8 years ago and luckily remembered yesterday) but now my current phone number is listed. Our zip code was 3 digits off. Not 3 numbers off the last digit. I mean, out of 5 numbers in the zip code, 3 were wrong. I was advised to retain the wrong zip for future reference as the correct zip code will not be entered into the system. One part of the record was accurate: our credit card number was correct. That's where the bill goes.

14 January 2009

Power Tools for the Kitchen

It's been a long time since I had an electric can opener or an electric knife. I have to admit I don't even have an electric mixer anymore. Or a hand mixer, for that matter.

But I have this nifty Power Scrubber. It runs on batteries (original set after a year). I think it came with an alternate brush but that's long gone. Perhaps an original purpose was to scrub vegetables but I've never used it for that. It would make a great pot scrubber but I don't scrub many pots.

My use is to tackle the kitchen counter, which is made of concrete. I really like the idea of using a power brush on my concrete counter top. I've intentionally used it in Tom Bold's line of sight, hoping to generate some Tim Allen style interest. No, none.

13 January 2009

From Hoovervilles to Modern Homelessness

Between Christmas and New Year's I saw a road show of Annie and was reminded of Hoovervilles. Named for President Hoover, the communities were (and remain) a symbol of the Great Depression. Often broken up by authorities, the tent cities would re-form in new locations, populated by both long-term and short-term homeless people.

In that tradition of being named after a politician, today's tent cities are sometimes called Bushvilles or Shruburbs. Less intuitive is Seattle's Nickelsville—it is a tent city built in protest of the mayor's policies about homelessness, and the mayor's name is Nickel. (Nickelsville moves its community around the Seattle area.)

As a baby boomer, I grew up knowing the terms shanty town and tin cup. And I knew that tin cup was for the luckier people because they had real houses. A shanty town then, and now, was constructed of movable parts. It was more like a Hooverville. Today's vocabulary is broader and it reflects a more diverse population of homeless people:

Doubling up - never reflected in homeless statistics, people double- or triple-up with family or friends, sleeping on couches or crowding a family into a single bedroom.

Squatting - people locate a space and "make it their own," sometimes maintaining a homesite for some time.

Bando - people move into abandoned properties, but probably in smaller numbers than the press suggests.

Car camping, RV camping - the "middle class" route to homelessness, as people are able to maintain a car and perhaps a job, too.

Safe parking program - for the car-camping homeless person, a safe place to spend the night can be a sponsored parking lot. The best publicized program is Santa Barbara's New Beginnings with 12 parking lots "housing" more than 50 vehicles. One lot is reserved for women in their cars. This CNN report tells the story.

12 January 2009

Budget Lunches: $1 Fast Food

In New York you can still buy lunch for a dollar albeit with fewer choices than a few years ago. You'll be buying from a street vendor but a hot pretzel is pretty tasty even if you're holding it with gloves and eating while moving.

In the South, we don't have many (any) food vendors, other than silver trucks at construction sites. And, of course, we don't have many (any) construction sites anymore.

But we do have dollar lunches. At our drive-thrus. Thus, we eat while moving, too. (For the record, New Yorkers have fast food restaurants, too. And they also have the dollar menus. I know, because I've stood in their long lines in order to make Manhattan meals affordable.)

McDonald's very successful $1 menu keeps it the #1 drive-thru chain. (Boomers will remember when the hamburger cost just 15¢.)

Sonic's dollar menu offers a mix of fat and fruit; see image above for detailing of fried foods and.... a banana! Go during Happy Hour and you can even beat the price of the $1 soft drink on the dollar menu. (So, my mid-afternoon lunch today was the $1 hamburger and the half-priced diet Coke. Ah, but then I went and more than doubled the tab when I added the bag of ice.)

Wendy's Super Value Menu highlights its 99¢ Value Trio (burgers and a chicken sandwich). Wendy's also is "auctioning" money, cars, and Xboxes online. (No clear indication of how this works, but I did register so that I can go take a look later this week....)

Dollar menus are offered at Burger King, Taco Bell, and local burger shacks, too. No one can be making a profit on these items (well, maybe a profit on fries) but they do bring in customers who sometimes buy from the regular menu, too. Or, in my case, add a bag of expensive ice. I think the real purpose is to keep Americans in their fast food habit. If tight budgets were to make us give up fast food, we'd fall into other daily patterns.

11 January 2009

Boomer women know cheesecake

This is chocolate cheesecake. With lots of extras. Those of us who shared this dessert recalled the day when plain cheesecake was a rare treat. I remember the exclamations of my female relatives when they came across cheesecake with cherries. The Sociologist reminded us of the excitement when Frozen New York Cheesecake In Pre-cut Slices became available in the South. I would brag on all that The Chef contributed to the conversation except I know that this weekend she was going to an educational cooking event featuring breakfast biscuits with chocolate and, you know, that's just not right.

10 January 2009

Pup Tent

Sherman's pup tent is actually a "pop-up kennel," which means that it is a cloth and mesh collapsible unit intended for travel. The fact that it resembles a tent (with a door flap) is coincidental.

Tom Bold is going to attempt travel with Sherman, whose current car rides max out at one hour. How he will tolerate a day or two of driving is unknown. I suggested the obvious: break down Sherman's big metal crate and take it along. Tom was absolutely silent. That means he doesn't agree with me but isn't quite sure of the alternative. I took it to mean that Sherman's crate would not make the trip.

OK. There must be an alternative. And it's the pop-up kennel. It folds down to a small square (a lot like those car windshield shades we used to wrestle). The only real risk is that Sherman will eat it, of course.

09 January 2009

Slow Shopping with One Exception

January is supposed to be slow for retailers, of course. A mall is supposed to be quieter. But I don't think it's supposed to be a ghost town.

Yesterday, at Town Center (upscale retailers) in Southlake, Texas (upscale city) in perfect weather (an upscale 70 degrees), my friends and I were outnumbered by the clerks in the stores we visited. We numbered three.

And while friends might accuse me and The Sociologist of not knowing a good shopping day from a... I have no idea what to compare it to..., everyone knows that The Chef knows retail. And she was with us.

So, we toured the shops and The Chef confirmed that we were seeing far too many sale signs of 60% and 75% "off" in stores that never used to discount more than the occasional and sedate 10% reward sale. Clerks rushed to us with shopping bags that we used to buy just a few heavily discounted lady-shopping items. (Things that fit in miniature shopping bags.) We didn't stimulate the economy with our purchases and The Sociologist commented that no shop owner would cover overhead. And I'm wondering how many days you can go before you start laying off those clerks who outnumber the customers.

As dire as my description is, there was one store, with doors wide open, that issued a veritable hum as we walked past. In fact, the sound of people was so dramatic that we turned and counted and photographed. Apple.
.

08 January 2009

The Boomer Divide: 1954

Demographers, sociologists, and, perhaps most important, marketers don't fall into the trap of assuming everyone born between 1946 and 1964 can be defined neatly as baby boomer. One category for an entire generation? That only works for distant history. When the people are still alive—and visible for observation—a single category is too broad.

Enter the year 1954. At least for now, it's the dividing line between early boomers and late boomers and speaks more to the childhood experiences of the sub-groups than to any actual event of 1954. Early boomers know VietNam. Late boomers know Charlie's Angels.

You might call that having your outlook shaped by socio-historical context. Or more colloquially, you are who you were when. Me? I like to refer to Judy Harris's theory of group socialization: the child's peer group in ages 6 to 12 is the greatest influence on personality development. Whatever is influencing the group and however the group responds to the influence will drive a lot of that development. I know, I know, that always sparks debate. But even after we debate it, I will still stick with Harris.

Current affairs application of 1954 as the boomer divide:
The LA Times used the idea of early versus late boomers to help explain President-elect Obama's approach to politics and governing (and the approach of his cabinet picks, too).

© 2008 Mary Bold, PhD, CFLE. The content of this blog or related web sites created by Mary Bold (www.marybold.com, www.boldproductions.com, College Intern Blog) is not under any circumstances to be regarded as professional, legal, financial, or medical advice. Or education advice. Or marital advice. Or even a tip.

07 January 2009

ObamaNews ... and Warren Oversight

Summary-style news on the incoming administration is the strength of the web site of the Transition Team: change.gov. While the news can be sobering, the presentation is up-beat, to the extent that it qualifies as PR for the government. I'm not sure what this site accomplishes for the populace except for insight into one's own agenda. That's what it did for me. I clicked on the Agenda tab, scanned the options, and selected "Health Care." So. It's what I must care about most right now. I hadn't articulated that even in my own mind before.

My broader focus has been on jobs. (No, I'm not referring to my own.) As friends and family assess how they are doing in the economic downturn, every single one of them frames it in terms of, "I'm lucky to have a job." All of them see lay-offs in their industries; some of them have seen colleagues already handed a severance check.

That leads me to my other web reading: Elizabeth Warren's cop.senate.gov, which stands for Congressional Oversight Panel. Harvard professor Warren and three others are monitoring the spending of the TARP bailout money. At least, they are beginning to monitor....

Warren's reputation is the best thing COP has going for it. The web site is mercifully simple, with just 3 menu buttons at present. The problem is, that could be accused of being over-Mac'd, which means the intent for simplicity may be the site's downfall. With just a couple of posts so far, it doesn't inform much. But the potential is there and Warren's role is worth watching.

06 January 2009

From Analog to Digital: People and TV

How often does a new technology emerge that the luckiest advice anyone can give or receive is "do nothing." For a whole lot of folks, digital TV is a foggy thing. I actually spent some time reading the U.S. government's guide on the topic. You know, where the feds will help you with a discount on your converter box...if you need one.

All sorts of traps there. First, the discount is in the form of a coupon that expires if you don't use it in the prescribed number of weeks. And you can have only one. (The solution is to have a friend, neighbor, or relative request one—because the $40-value coupon is transferable.)

Second trap: figuring out why you don't get a coupon. Time's up. Fund is depleted. Now, you can get on a waiting list. So, you're more likely to give up on the coupon and pay full price (up to $80).

Third trap is actually the first one: knowing if you even need to learn all that.

The Consumerist has produced the simplest of flowcharts to lead you to action... or to do nothing. Even if you don't care a whit about this digital TV thing, you should click this link to The Consumerist's flowchart because it's such a good graphic. (Image at top of this blog is only a fraction of the flowchart.)

If you are genuinely foggy on your TV's configuration for the February 17 transition to digital, you'll like this old joke about baby boomers: most of them are analog people living in a digital world.

05 January 2009

Economic Indicator: the Mailbox

I was certain that I received less mail in the months of November and December. Short of counting pieces, which would be counterproductive to the enjoyment of spending less time sorting mail, I just made a mental note to check it out after the holidays.

I was right. Mail was down. Fewer catalogs—that was the first observation. And fewer credit card offers—it took a while to realize that one.

Year-end news reports made clear that credit card companies were changing their practices. Some people saw their credit limits lowered. Some saw their rates go up. And a smaller number of consumers saw the next painful result: lowered credit scores.

If you aren't carrying a balance, you just take in those news stories. Hmmm. Yep. Tough times ahead for anyone living on their credit cards. Likely to get worse as more people face layoffs. Hmmm. Yep.

So, the direct impact doesn't reach you until you notice you're receiving fewer credit card offers in your mailbox. What's wrong with that impact? That should be good news, right?

No. There is no good news in the current economic downturn. A decrease in junk mail, unfortunately, is bad news.

Credit card companies (including the ones turning into bank-holding companies in order to apply for federal bail-outs) are expecting increased charge-offs in 2009. That's not a word we're accustomed to hearing because a charge-off is an expected part of the credit card business. It's the amont of bad debt that a company writes off every year. If you were a credit card company (or any business relying on humans making monetary payments) you would expect to see several percentage points a year labeled as charge-off, loss, etc.

But you probably wouldn't be prepared for a double-digit percentage. And that's a possibility in the near future. Current charge-offs are around 5.5%, which sounds OK compared to the 7.9% level in 2001. The problem is that the average for the past 10 years was 5%, so high charge-offs in 2001 were countered by much lower charge-offs in other years. And other economic indicators (layoffs, foreclosures) are much more dramatic now than in 2001.

We can hope that the dire predictions for 10% charge-offs are wrong. Not so much because we care for the credit card companies' profits as because we know what that double-digit percentage would represent in terms of consumers' need to use their cards for staples, not luxuries.

From the movies: If you are old enough to remember Kramer vs Kramer (1979), you can correct me if I have mis-remembered the protagonist's use of a department store credit card to buy food for supper. I'm thinking of Dustin Hoffman's character. The cocktail-party-style foodstuffs provided sustenance for the man and his son when cash was short. (If you remember all this, you are also old enough to remember the first time your local grocery store accepted credit cards. And then your movie theatre. And then your fast-food drive-through.)

04 January 2009

Packing with Cling Wrap [Not Refrigerated]

It's a small thing but struck me as brilliant. Rather than look for the right-sized storage container (with lid) for the holiday gift-wrapping supplies, just wrap the basket in cling wrap. Admittedly, it took several layers of the plastic but the result is a secure basket, the contents of which are visible. Credit goes to the young man who came to help us pack away the holidays. He's the absent tree man's younger cousin. And he's young and broke, which makes the drive to the dome acceptable to him.

This smart helper is also responsible for my favorite part of the day: seeing the solar lights burning brightly in the closet.

03 January 2009

Rumors of Stores Closing: Not All True

There's a nice sense of relief when rumors of economic ruin can be denied—thanks to Snopes.com's "Store Closings" report. In Snope.com's words, email reports on chain store woes were a "mixture of accurate, inaccurate, and outdated information."

For fastest reading (and most accurate information), scroll to about the half-way point on the web page. That's where the accurate reporting on chain stores begins. (Snopes.com investigates rumors and reports on their accuracy as well as explains the how and the why behind the rumors' spreading in the first place.)

We'll probably have more such misinformation to sift through in 2009. I am struck by how much of the information was based on partial fact (yes, Pep Boys did make store closings) but mainly suffered from outdated data. So, the claim that Pep Boys would close all stores by December 2008 was a wild exageration of what really happened. The chain closed 31 underperforming outlets at the end of 2007. And the important missing context? Those 31 represented a fraction of the chain's 600 stores.

No guarantees for Pep Boys or any other chain as the recession deepens—and maybe it takes a year to get the whole story—but it's nice to see the rumors proven wrong.

02 January 2009

Personal Technology: Checking Internet Speed

Test the speed of your Internet connection by logging into an MSN web site and entering just two pieces of information.

1 - Enter your area code.
2 - Select the type of connection (dial-up, LAN/WAN, DSL/Cable).
Then just click on the Test It button.

My results were consistent across several trials. The measurement is made against CNET servers. CNET is my favorite "tech help" resource, as noted in a previous blog.

There are a lot of similar free services on the web. Speakeasy Speed Test is the most entertaining of the sites. Click a city name and a test with that server will ensue, complete with animation for both download and upload speeds.

What these sites are checking is best described as your potential connection speed. If your neighborhood is surfing at the same time or other external forces (such as lots of "hops" of data around the globe before the data reaches you) are at work, you may still experience slower downloads than the test indicates is possible. So, our fiber optic service (FIOS) tests wonderfully but we routinely experience slow loading of web sites. One great lesson that only took a few weeks to learn: piping radio across the web slows surfing by anyone else in the house. YMMV.

YMMV = your mileage may vary. Interesting cross-over advisory from automobiles to computers.

01 January 2009

Housing Values: Checking with Online Estimators

When I checked online housing price estimators two months ago, I found a wide range of values estimated for our home, topping at a million bucks. Last night's check on the numbers removed that unrealistic option but still produced a wide range of potential values.

To permit comparison, I set my own "fair price" on the dome. It's a figure that provides profit above the original cost and reflects what I would have called a reasonable price last summer. That's when we actually thought about moving and met with a realtor—but realized all markets were working against us and we'd better sit tight. So, my X value has never been tested but I'll use it for these comparisons and I'll repeat the process in another several months.

At RealEstate.com, our home value is estimated at 68% of X.

At Yahoo! Real Estate, home values are figured with the assist of two databases, reported side by side. The value for our house from Zillow.com is 110% of X. The second one, from appraisal.com, comes in at 170% of X. Yahoo! doesn't attempt to reconcile the estimates.

A Bank of America web site also offers a range, but at least a bit narrower, at 120% to 150% of X. The values are presented as a minimum and a maximum, presumably from a single source.

So, overall, I found a remarkable value range: from 68% of X to 170% of X. Even though the majority of estimates exceeded 100% of X, I'm not counting on them. Neither am I testing them. (Sitting tight.) But I will track them this year and perhaps learn more about online estimators than about the housing market?