Showing posts with label housing bust. Show all posts
Showing posts with label housing bust. Show all posts

19 April 2010

From Underwater to Foreclosure: One Anecdote

Most boomers grew up to believe bankruptcy was a sad, sad event. We feel sympathy for people who go through the process. Outside of a few cynical jokes about billionaires who file for such protection, we don't laugh when we hear that a friend has hit hard times and taken that route. Foreclosures? We grew up with no belief at all.

Regardless of what we know about sub-prime mortgages, we are now developing a new understanding of the foreclosures in our neighborhoods. How much of the turmoil is individual responsibility and how much can be attributed to the mortgage industry? That will be easier to say in retrospect. You know, 10 years from now.

In the meantime, I'd say the mood about foreclosures is not as sympathetic as about bankruptcy. Although the contract approach ("my mortgage is nothing more than a contract and my business decision is to walk away from that contract") has logic to it, most homeowners don't support their neighbor taking this route. All values drop as the number of foreclosures in a neighborhood go up.

But in some communities, the contract approach is losing its stigma. That's because so many homes are being foreclosed. I refer to Las Vegas, of course. Here's one explanation that a realtor shared with me:

You live in a $300,000 home, which you purchased at the peak of the housing bubble. You are able to make the payments on your $280,000 note. But you know you're underwater (your note is greater than the house would sell for) because the city's foreclosures are numerous and values have dropped dramatically. Those are the effects of the housing bust.

You notice that the house across the street from you is REO (real estate owned or bank-owned, meaning foreclosed) and listed at $150,000. You apply for a mortgage to buy it "as an investment."

As soon as all the paperwork is completed, you move into that house, paying monthly on a much smaller mortage. You stop making payments on your first home (the one with the $280,000 mortgage) and eventually your bank forecloses on it.

You've moved into a highly similar home, reduced your monthly housing cost, and kept your kids in their familiar school. There is a price to pay: just as it takes time to "recover" credit-wise from bankruptcy, the foreclosure will affect your credit for years.

Are all foreclosures the result of a calculated choice like that? Of course not. But anecdotes like this one help explain how foreclosures are normalized in people's thinking.

© 2010 Mary Bold, PhD, CFLE. The content of this blog or related web sites created by Mary Bold (http://www.marybold.com/, http://www.boldproductions.com/, College Intern Blog) is not under any circumstances to be regarded as professional, legal, financial, or medical advice. Or education advice. Or marital advice. Or even a tip.

09 March 2009

$100 or $9000 House

It caught your eye, too. Yesterday's Op-Ed in the Times: "For Sale: The $100 House." Admittedly, there is opportunity for urban legend here but there's also something appealing about the thought of creating new communities from "next to nothing." And houses in Detroit ranging from $100 to $1,900 qualify for that descriptor.

Cheap housing is always at hand, of course, even in good times. Location—geographic location—is the crucial factor. Sometime around the year 2002, my sister took me to see the new home of a young friend in Hot Springs, Arkansas. It was the $9,000 house.

Imagine a studio apartment free-standing, stucco on the outside, and the lawn consisting of a strip of grass between the house porch (yes, it had a porch) and the driveway (yes, it had a driveway).

My sister and I admired the existence of such a domicile and cheered for the young people who actually knew how to do the plumbing that the old bungalow required. We should all be so resourceful.

For boomers who can appreciate the history: our first home in 1979 (DFW metroplex) cost $48,000 for a conventional starter 3/2/2. Our third home in 1989 (marking a return to the DFW metroplex) was a better 4/3/2 for the modest cost of $85,000. We told realtors we wanted to see only houses that had been foreclosed upon. We were making a post-lay-off move and wanted to contain our costs to the greatest extent possible. In that season, foreclosures were available but had to be "located" and we had to be firm with realtors that we wouldn't look at any other type of house. Several years later, a friend told me that all the neighbors were tracking our purchase of that house. They were anguished that a house was being purchased below the six-figure mark. There was discussion about what kind of people we might be. The woman next door to us was quoted as saying, "Well, they have a minivan."

© 2009 Mary Bold, PhD, CFLE. The content of this blog or related web sites created by Mary Bold (www.marybold.com, www.boldproductions.com, College Intern Blog) is not under any circumstances to be regarded as professional, legal, financial, or medical advice. Or education advice. Or marital advice. Or even a tip.

01 January 2009

Housing Values: Checking with Online Estimators

When I checked online housing price estimators two months ago, I found a wide range of values estimated for our home, topping at a million bucks. Last night's check on the numbers removed that unrealistic option but still produced a wide range of potential values.

To permit comparison, I set my own "fair price" on the dome. It's a figure that provides profit above the original cost and reflects what I would have called a reasonable price last summer. That's when we actually thought about moving and met with a realtor—but realized all markets were working against us and we'd better sit tight. So, my X value has never been tested but I'll use it for these comparisons and I'll repeat the process in another several months.

At RealEstate.com, our home value is estimated at 68% of X.

At Yahoo! Real Estate, home values are figured with the assist of two databases, reported side by side. The value for our house from Zillow.com is 110% of X. The second one, from appraisal.com, comes in at 170% of X. Yahoo! doesn't attempt to reconcile the estimates.

A Bank of America web site also offers a range, but at least a bit narrower, at 120% to 150% of X. The values are presented as a minimum and a maximum, presumably from a single source.

So, overall, I found a remarkable value range: from 68% of X to 170% of X. Even though the majority of estimates exceeded 100% of X, I'm not counting on them. Neither am I testing them. (Sitting tight.) But I will track them this year and perhaps learn more about online estimators than about the housing market?

© 2008 Mary Bold, PhD, CFLE. The content of this blog or related web sites created by Mary Bold (www.marybold.com, www.boldproductions.com, College Intern Blog) is not under any circumstances to be regarded as professional, legal, financial, or medical advice. Or education advice. Or marital advice. Or even a tip.

22 October 2008

Housing Boom, Housing Bust, and the Boomers

Dated September 2008, a paper published by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College examines "The Housing Bubble and Retirement Security." The general conclusion for "older households" is that about a third of them will suffer from the housing bubble through less secure retirements.

The authors tracked the decisions by homeowners (across all age groups) during the housing boom years (2001-2006), and found that close to 40% had some kind of "mortgage activity," meaning refinancing or extracting home equity. Among those with activity, about a third spent the money on home improvements, about a third repaid other debts or made new purchases, and about a third made an investment in the stock market or real estate or a business.

Based on age in 2004, the age group 50 - 62 saw the greatest housing gains between 2001 and 2006. This age group also led in extracting home equity and then led in consuming (paying other debts or making new purchases). At least according to the formula in this paper, the near-retirement group who extracted home equity have lower net worth after the housing bubble.

The paper (which opens as a PDF file) includes easy-to-understand charts that illustrate the impact of the housing bust on age groups. It also explains the predictable human response to a housing boom: housing gains promote spending.

© 2008 Mary Bold, PhD, CFLE. The content of this blog or related web sites created by Mary Bold (www.marybold.com, www.boldproductions.com, College Intern Blog) is not under any circumstances to be regarded as professional, legal, financial, or medical advice. Or education advice. Or marital advice. Or even a tip.